As the Deepwater Horizon continues to spill oil out into the Gulf of Mexico and BP’s best efforts still a few months away from completely stopping the flow, several people are asking “Just how far will the oil slick grow?” Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have run some of their best models to find out just that.
The animation is based on a computer model simulation, using a virtual dye, that assumes weather and current conditions similar to those that occur in a typical year. It is one of a set of six scenarios released today that simulate possible pathways the oil might take under a variety of oceanic conditions. Each of the six scenarios shows the same overall movement of oil through the Gulf to the Atlantic and up the East Coast. However, the timing and fine-scale details differ, depending on the details of the ocean currents in the Gulf.
The animation above is just one of six runs, the other 5 of which you can see here.
I feel it only prudent to specifically point out these two sentences in the article:
The dye tracer used in the model has no actual physical resemblance to true oil. Unlike oil, the dye has the same density as the surrounding water, does not coagulate or form slicks, and is not subject to chemical breakdown by bacteria or other forces.
and
“We have been asked if and when remnants of the spill could reach the European coastlines,” says Martin Visbeck, a member of the research team with IFM-GEOMAR, University of Kiel, Germany. “Our assumption is that the enormous lateral mixing in the ocean together with the biological disintegration of the oil should reduce the pollution to levels below harmful concentrations. But we would like to have this backed up by numbers from some of the best ocean models.”
via Ocean currents likely to carry oil along Atlantic coast | UCAR.
My non-scientific guess: To calculate how far oil will spread, two factors must be calculated: First,amount and rate of oil being discharged. Second, rate of bio-degradation of that amount of oil in ocean. i.e., will it be at zero by time currents take it across the Atlantic? Etc.
Point number two: If relief wells fail in August, there is a sure fire way to stop discharge and I’m surprised there hasn’t been a single mention of it anywhere. There are over 600 drilling rigs in Gulf now. Bring as few as 10 over Merando (?) field and put them all in service at once. Should drain oil (or at least reduce pressure to zero) in less than 6 months. Bring more if necessary! Probably 6 months to set up (rush) also and should be ended in less than year. But prep should be started now! Better oil go into supertankers than continue to pour into world’s oceans for next 10-25 years !