Bright Side of the News has a cost analysis breakdown on the GF100 (Fermi) chip. According to the article, the GF100 is being manufactured at TSMC on a 300mm wafer using a 4540 nm process. Assuming that the GF100 chip is the same size as the GT200 chip, which was manufactured on a 65 nm process, then 94 GF100 chips will fit on a wafer. If one assumes a 40% yield, that gives Nvidia 37~38 chips per wafer. At $5000 per wafer, that means that a GF100 chip costs $131. How much is AMD paying per chip? From the article:
… the current cost of single AMD Cypress die is $96. For as long as you’re under $100 per die, you can count your blessings with TSMC’s 40nm process. Reality is that AMD can easily reach 60-70% yields with Cypress and they will drive the cost of a single Cypress ASIC to anywhere between $54-64 [70 to 60% yield]. Thus, cost advantage AMD, no matter what happens.
The article is really worth reading, as it deals with the 2% yield rumor for the A1 silicon, and talks about the yields for the A2 silicon.
via Bright Side of the News : nVidia GF100 Fermi silicon cost analysis
wishfull thinking on nv part even with the 40nm die shrink nv made their chip entirely to large. their chip even with the die shrink will be 20 to 30 percent larger than their previous chip, and almost 40 percent larger than ati’s new chip. nv new card will be STUPID expensive for everybody. also you take into account the die size increase it also means that the overall card size will also increase which is not good for alot of people with smaller cases. with that increase of size also means that the card will produce more heat and consume more electricity. good luck with sli configurations. nv can keep the carp.
You are correct, it is a 40nm process. I just mistyped it in. It is corrected above.
This is far from accurate, not even approximate. First NV is using 40nm for Fermi so the die size is smaller than expected. Second, TSMC is reported to have improved the overall yield of the 40nm line, although for specific chip it is not known. AMD’s small sized ones may get better. GF100 will clean up NV’s consumer product line and recent benchmark results suggest it’s position in the market.